A year after the devastating war in Tigray ended in 2022, Ethiopia has been drawn into another violent confrontation — this time in the Amhara region. Once allies of the federal government, Amhara militias known as “Fano” have turned their weapons against it, sparking a new insurgency in the country’s north
The Amhara, one of Ethiopia’s largest and most historically influential ethnic groups, have long played a central role in shaping the Ethiopian state. The Amharic language remains the nation’s working tongue. But political developments since 2018, and fallout from the Tigray conflict, have left the region deeply divided and distrustful of the central government.
From Ally to Adversary
During the 2020–2022 Tigray war, Amhara regional forces and Fano militias fought alongside federal troops against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). However, when a peace deal was signed in late 2022, Amhara fighters were excluded from the negotiations. Many in the region felt betrayed — especially as the agreement did not address long-disputed border areas such as Welkait.
Tensions worsened in early 2023 when the federal government ordered the dissolution of regional special forces, a move it said was intended to unify the national army. In Amhara, this was seen as an attempt to weaken regional defenses while the Tigray Defence Forces remained largely intact.
By April 2023, sporadic clashes between federal troops and local fighters escalated rapidly. By August, Fano militias launched coordinated attacks across major Amhara cities, transforming unrest into a full-fledged insurgency.
The violence has since displaced over 100,000 people and left millions of children out of school, while the death toll continues to rise. Government reports in March 2025 claimed that more than 300 Fano combatants had been killed in recent operations.
Political Breakdown and the Rise of Grievances
Researchers studying ethnic nationalism and insurgent movements in Ethiopia identify three key drivers behind the Amhara rebellion:
- A flawed political transition (2018–2020)
- Unresolved consequences of the Tigray war (2020–2022)
- An ineffective and fragmented peace process
The troubled transition
From 1991 to 2018, Ethiopia was governed by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) — a coalition representing the country’s main ethnolinguistic groups. Mounting unrest from 2014 to 2018 forced the coalition to reform. The Oromo and Amhara wings cooperated to remove the Tigray-dominated leadership and supported Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power in 2018.
Initially, relations between the Oromo and Amhara factions appeared balanced. But in December 2019, Prime Minister Abiy dissolved the coalition to form the Prosperity Party, which many in the Amhara region viewed as dominated by Oromo interests.
Key political positions and economic opportunities became concentrated in Oromo hands. Amhara leaders who spoke out were dismissed, detained, or forced into exile. The assassination of Amhara regional president Ambachew Mekonnen in 2019 deepened the crisis.
Residents from the Amhara region also reported harassment and discrimination when traveling to Addis Ababa, while ethnic violence against Amharas continued in several parts of the country. These experiences fueled anti-government sentiment and renewed calls for regional self-defense.
Fallout from the Tigray War
The 2022 Pretoria peace deal ended two years of bloodshed but left Amhara interests unaddressed. The exclusion of Amhara representatives from the negotiations — despite the region’s direct involvement in the war — intensified feelings of marginalization.
Disputed territories between Amhara and Tigray, including Welkait and Raya, were left unresolved, further straining trust.
When the government later moved to disarm Amhara Special Forces, many saw it as part of a broader effort to diminish the region’s influence. Public demonstrations erupted across the region, often clashing with security forces. Within months, these protests evolved into a full-blown Fano insurgency, now supported by parts of the Amhara public and diaspora communities.
The State of the Insurgency
The Fano movement now operates across a region nearly three times the size of Tigray, stretching the capacity of federal forces. While its factions share a general goal of defending Amhara interests, they lack unified command, central leadership, or consistent political aims.
Some groups call for constitutional reform and greater regional autonomy; others advocate for the overthrow of the federal government. Internal divisions and rivalries have so far prevented a coordinated front.
Peace Efforts and Military Crackdown
The government declared a state of emergency in Amhara in August 2023, later extending it into 2024. Although the emergency formally ended in mid-2024, restrictions — including nighttime curfews — remain in several cities such as Bahir Dar.
The federal counterinsurgency relies heavily on Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) deployments and drone strikes. Meanwhile, the government has expressed willingness for dialogue, though critics argue that no meaningful confidence-building steps — such as releasing political prisoners — have been taken.
A Peace Council established to mediate between Fano groups and the government has made little progress, citing a lack of cooperation from federal authorities. Reports suggest the government has engaged in secret talks with select Fano factions, possibly to divide the movement further.
The Way Forward
Experts warn that Ethiopia’s current strategy — alternating between military suppression and limited peace overtures — is unlikely to bring stability. The Prosperity Party’s unpopularity in Amhara, combined with widespread resentment over unaddressed grievances, continues to fuel the rebellion.
A sustainable peace, analysts say, would require:
- The release of detained Amhara activists, journalists, and politicians;
- A comprehensive national dialogue involving Fano groups, civil society, community leaders, and diaspora representatives; and
- Independent mediation from regional and international actors.
Lasting stability will depend on addressing Ethiopia’s deep-rooted ethnic power imbalances, ensuring protection for Amhara minorities in other regions, and finding fair resolutions to territorial disputes based on history, law, and popular consent.
Ultimately, observers agree that Ethiopia must break the cycle of ethnic dominance and exclusion in its governance model if the country is to achieve enduring peace.
Editor’s Note: This article is an independently written summary and reformulation based on publicly available information and expert commentary, including the analysis “Ethiopia’s Civil War: What’s Behind the Amhara Rebellion?” originally published by The Conversation (April 2, 2025).
