As vote counts trickle in from Ethiopia’s latest national election, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is widely anticipated to secure a commanding share of the national vote, with projections pointing to roughly 90 percent. But analysts, opposition figures, and international observers are asking a harder question: does an overwhelming majority signal genuine public support, or does it reflect the deep structural flaws of a country still wrestling with its own identity?
Ethiopia is a complex mosaic of ethnicities, languages, and political traditions. Despite Abiy Ahmed’s Nobel Peace Prize, awarded in 2019 for ending a decades-long conflict with neighboring Eritrea, armed insurgencies continue to simmer across the Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia regions. The instability was significant enough that dozens of constituencies were excluded from participating in Monday’s vote altogether, including most of the Tigray region.
A Promise Unfinished
When Abiy came to power in 2018, he set out to dismantle an entrenched ethnic-based political system and forge a more unified Ethiopian state. Early signs were encouraging: political prisoners were released, diplomatic ties with Eritrea were restored, and a new era of openness seemed to be emerging.
But the ambitions of building a new political order collided with the forces of the old one. Tensions between Addis Ababa and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), once one of Ethiopia’s dominant political forces, erupted into full-scale civil war in 2020. The conflict claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and became the defining crisis of Abiy’s tenure. A peace agreement was reached in 2022, yet Tigray remains under an interim administration, and the underlying grievances that fueled the war have not been fully resolved.
In Amhara, forces that once aligned with the federal government against the TPLF have since turned against Addis Ababa. In Oromia, federal troops continue to battle the Oromo Liberation Army. Security incidents were reported in both regions on election day, with voting suspended at select polling stations.
Questions of Fairness
Supporters of the prime minister point to tangible achievements: ambitious infrastructure projects, significant economic reforms, and what they describe as decisive national leadership. For them, the election result reflects a genuine mandate.
Critics see a different picture. They argue that the concurrent crises in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia are not isolated incidents but evidence that Ethiopia’s fundamental political tensions remain unresolved. Human rights organizations have raised serious concerns, with one institute issuing an active genocide alert over the situation in Amhara. Reports of aerial strikes targeting civilian infrastructure, widespread displacement, and restricted press freedom have drawn sharp international scrutiny.
Analysts also point to structural factors that tend to favor incumbents in Ethiopia’s first-past-the-post electoral system, where even a plurality of votes in a given district is sufficient to win a seat, making landslide majorities mathematically plausible even without outright manipulation.
One senior analyst described the exercise as “a simulation of democracy,” arguing that the conditions necessary for a free and fair vote, political pluralism, freedom of expression, security across all constituencies, and an independent electoral body trusted by all stakeholders, were simply not in place.
The Regional Dimension
Beyond its borders, Ethiopia’s election result carries implications that extend across the Horn of Africa. Abiy’s repeated statements about seeking sovereign access to the Red Sea, territory that would require going through Eritrea, have raised fears of a broader regional conflict. Some observers warn that an emboldened government, armed with a fresh electoral mandate, may feel freer to pursue that goal through non-diplomatic means.
There are also concerns about Ethiopia’s reported involvement in Sudan’s ongoing civil war and its complicated relationship with Somalia over a controversial deal with Somaliland. Analysts suggest these external entanglements reflect a government using foreign policy assertiveness to consolidate domestic political narratives.
What Comes Next
For millions of Ethiopians who turned out to vote, often in the face of intimidation and active efforts by some armed groups to suppress participation, the act of casting a ballot was itself a statement. Whether it was an endorsement of the ruling party’s policies or a rejection of the violence that has gripped the country remains, for now, an open question.
What is clear is that the Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed set out to transform eight years ago remains deeply divided, and that the work of building genuine peace, political inclusion, and institutional trust is far from over.
Source: Al Jazeera English — Newsmakers
