Ethiopia is once again teetering on the brink of a devastating conflict. The peace agreement that ended the brutal two-year war in Tigray is fraying, and tensions among regional powers are raising fears of another full-scale confrontation in the Horn of Africa.
The 2022 truce—brokered by African and Western mediators after years of fighting between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)—was once hailed as a rare diplomatic success. Yet, as recently highlighted by The Economist, that peace is now dangerously close to collapse.
Renewed Hostilities
On November 7, Tigrayan leaders accused Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government of violating the agreement through drone attacks in the north. This came amid escalating clashes between Tigrayan forces and federal-aligned militias in neighboring Afar. Abiy’s government, in turn, suspended federal funding to Tigray, accusing the regional administration of misusing public resources to rebuild its military strength.
Although the prime minister told parliament that his government seeks no war, his warning that “no one will stop us” if conflict reignites has deepened anxiety across the country. Ethiopia’s army chief was even more blunt, stating that the TPLF must be “eliminated” for peace to prevail. In Tigray’s capital, Mekelle, civilians have begun hoarding food and withdrawing money, fearing that fighting may soon return.
A Web of Shifting Alliances
Unlike the 2020 war, today’s tensions are shaped by fractured alliances and new rivalries. Within Tigray, political divisions have intensified. Earlier this year, a faction of the TPLF ousted the interim president, replacing him with a military leader. The move sparked a splinter group to defect and align with government-backed forces in Afar—signaling deep mistrust within the Tigrayan camp itself.
At the same time, Ethiopia’s relationship with its northern neighbor, Eritrea, has deteriorated sharply. Once partners against the TPLF, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki now view each other as primary threats. Abiy’s repeated claims that Ethiopia’s lack of access to the Red Sea is an “existential” issue—and his remarks questioning Eritrea’s independence—have alarmed regional observers. Satellite imagery and reports from local sources suggest both sides are quietly preparing for confrontation near the border.
In an unexpected turn, Tigrayan leaders appear to be re-establishing contact with Eritrea, despite the atrocities committed by Eritrean forces in the previous war. Reports indicate that Eritrean soldiers are moving freely across parts of northern Tigray and that Eritrean currency is circulating in local markets. Analysts warn that, if conflict reignites, Eritrea could side with Tigray against the Ethiopian government.
Growing Rebellion in Amhara
Adding to the turmoil is a rebellion in the Amhara region, where the Fano militia—once an ally of Addis Ababa—has turned against the federal government. The Fano’s recent offensive in eastern Amhara dealt significant blows to national forces and revealed the extent of Abiy’s challenges at home. According to regional observers, informal coordination has emerged between Fano fighters, Tigrayan commanders, and even Eritrean officials—an unlikely but pragmatic alliance forged by shared hostility toward the prime minister.
Regional Fallout
The crisis in Ethiopia is closely tied to the ongoing civil war in neighboring Sudan. Both the TPLF and Eritrea have reportedly aligned themselves with Sudan’s national army (SAF), while Ethiopia maintains close ties with the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—a country accused of backing Sudan’s rival faction, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Egypt, meanwhile, remains a vocal supporter of the SAF and has strengthened its relations with Eritrea, its longtime partner against Ethiopia’s Nile dam project.
Such overlapping interests risk transforming Ethiopia’s domestic crisis into a regional conflagration, involving Sudan, Eritrea, Egypt, and the UAE. As The Economist warned, a covert proxy war in the Horn of Africa has already begun—and it may take only a single misstep for it to explode into open warfare.
A Fragile Window for Diplomacy
Despite the escalating rhetoric, there is still a chance to avert another catastrophe. Diplomats from the African Union, the United States, and the European Union are working to restore dialogue between Abiy Ahmed’s government and the TPLF. But time is running out. The same ingredients that led to the 2020 conflict—mutual distrust, military buildup, and nationalist ambition—are once again in place.
Without urgent mediation, Ethiopia could soon face not only another civil war but also a wider regional confrontation that would reshape the Horn of Africa for years to come.
Editor’s Note: This article draws on open-source information and recent reporting, including contextual insights from The Economist.
