Fresh military clashes in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region have sparked fears that the fragile peace established in 2022 could collapse, potentially plunging the Horn of Africa nation back into devastating warfare.
Late January witnessed a dangerous escalation when fighting erupted between Ethiopia’s federal military and forces aligned with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The government’s response was swift and severe, authorities grounded all air traffic to and from Tigray on January 29, followed by drone operations targeting locations in the region’s interior on January 31.
According to The Economist’s February 5 analysis, Tigray’s population has endured a year of mounting economic pressure, with residents experiencing recurring shortages of cash, bare store shelves, and dramatic price increases. These hardships have revived painful memories of the 2020-2022 war, a conflict that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.
The current crisis has deep roots in territorial disputes that the Pretoria peace agreement of 2022 left unresolved. During the previous war, militia groups from the neighboring Amhara region joined federal forces in taking control of Western Tigray, forcing massive numbers of Tigrayans from their homes. Most of these displaced people remain in camps, unable to return despite the peace deal’s provisions for further negotiations on their status.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s parliamentary address on February 3 revealed the depth of animosity still present, as he characterized the TPLF leadership as “traitors” seeking to destabilize the nation. TPLF officials have reported large-scale federal military mobilization, warning that another full-scale war could prove catastrophic.
The Economist’s analysis suggests that while renewed conflict is not inevitable—pointing to internal divisions within the TPLF and the government’s strained relationships with multiple regional actors—the danger remains acute. The publication emphasized that Ethiopia’s internal instability connects to wider regional turmoil, particularly the ongoing war in Sudan, meaning any new Tigray conflict could rapidly expand beyond Ethiopia’s borders.
The situation underscores the fragility of peace agreements in regions where underlying grievances remain unaddressed, with displaced populations, contested territories, and deep political divisions creating conditions ripe for violence to reignite.
Source: The Economist, “Ethiopia inches ever closer to war,” February 5, 2026
